Njer\u00ebzit e varf\u00ebr dhe shtresa e mesme paguajn\u00eb taksa, t\u00eb pasurit paguajn\u00eb kontabilist\u00ebt, shum\u00eb t\u00eb pasurit paguajn\u00eb avokat\u00ebt, nd\u00ebrsa ultra t\u00eb pasurit paguajn\u00eb politikan\u00ebt. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb v\u00ebzhgim origjinal, por ia vlen t\u00eb p\u00ebrs\u00ebritet derisa ta ken\u00eb d\u00ebgjuar t\u00eb gjith\u00eb.
\nSa m\u00eb shum\u00eb para grumbullojn\u00eb miliarder\u00ebt, aq m\u00eb i madh b\u00ebhet kontrolli i tyre mbi sistemin politik, \u00e7ka do t\u00eb thot\u00eb se paguajn\u00eb m\u00eb pak taksa, pra grumbullojn\u00eb m\u00eb shum\u00eb para, dhe pushteti i tyre rritet edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb. Ata e rip\u00ebrcaktojn\u00eb bot\u00ebn n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb q\u00eb t\u2019u sh\u00ebrbej\u00eb nevojave t\u00eb tyre.<\/p>\n
Nj\u00eb nga simptomat e patologjis\u00eb s\u00eb njohur si \u201ctruri i miliarderit\u201d \u00ebsht\u00eb paaft\u00ebsia p\u00ebr t\u00eb par\u00eb p\u00ebrtej fitimit personal n\u00eb afat t\u00eb shkurt\u00ebr. Ata do ta sakrifikonin t\u00eb gjith\u00eb planetin p\u00ebr disa gur\u00eb t\u00eb tjer\u00eb mbi malin e tyre t\u00eb pakuptimt\u00eb t\u00eb pasuris\u00eb. Dhe kjo po ndodh pik\u00ebrisht para syve tan\u00eb. Dy jav\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb mb\u00ebrriti lajmi m\u00eb i r\u00ebnd\u00ebsish\u00ebm i vitit, ndoshta edhe i shekullit. Por duke qen\u00eb se miliarder\u00ebt zot\u00ebrojn\u00eb pjes\u00ebn m\u00eb t\u00eb madhe t\u00eb mediave, shumica e njer\u00ebzve nuk kan\u00eb d\u00ebgjuar asgj\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u00eb. Mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrfundojm\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga ato ngjarje q\u00eb i japin fund nj\u00eb qytet\u00ebrimi, para se t\u00eb kuptojm\u00eb se di\u00e7ka e till\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb madje e mundur.<\/p>\n
Lajmi, i publikuar m\u00eb 15 prill, \u00ebsht\u00eb se disa shkenc\u00ebtar\u00eb kan\u00eb rishqyrtuar sistemin e qarkullimit oqeanik dhe jan\u00eb t\u00eb bindur se, si pasoj\u00eb e degradimit klimatik q\u00eb po ndryshon temperatur\u00ebn dhe krip\u00ebsin\u00eb e ujit t\u00eb detit, ky sistem ka m\u00eb shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb shembet, sesa t\u00eb mos shembet. Ky sistem, i njohur si \u201cQarkullimi Meridional i P\u00ebrmbysjes s\u00eb Atlantikut\u201d (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, ose AMOC), shp\u00ebrndan nxeht\u00ebsin\u00eb nga tropik\u00ebt drejt Atlantikut verior.<\/p>\n
Studime t\u00eb fundit sugjerojn\u00eb se, n\u00ebse ky sistem do t\u00eb ndalej, mund t\u00eb shkaktonte nj\u00eb r\u00ebnie t\u00eb fort\u00eb t\u00eb temperaturave mesatare dim\u00ebrore n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Veriore dhe ndryshime drastike n\u00eb ciklet e ujit n\u00eb Amazon\u00eb. Kjo mund t\u00eb kontribuonte n\u00eb nisjen e nj\u00eb reaksioni zinxhir n\u00eb pyllin tropikal, deri n\u00eb kolapsin e tij, duke shkaktuar katastrofa t\u00eb tjera.<\/p>\n
Ndalimi i AMOC mund gjithashtu t\u00eb p\u00ebrshpejtoj\u00eb rritjen e nivelit t\u00eb detit p\u00ebrgjat\u00eb bregut lindor t\u00eb Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara, duke k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar qytete t\u00eb t\u00ebra; t\u00eb rris\u00eb temperatur\u00ebn n\u00eb Antarktid\u00eb me rreth gjasht\u00eb grad\u00eb; dhe t\u00eb \u00e7liroj\u00eb nj\u00eb sasi t\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonshme dioksidi karboni, q\u00eb aktualisht \u00ebsht\u00eb i depozituar n\u00eb Oqeanin Antarktik, duke e p\u00ebrshpejtuar kriz\u00ebn klimatike. Edhe duke marr\u00eb parasysh efektet kompensuese t\u00eb ngrohjes globale t\u00eb p\u00ebrgjithshme, v\u00ebren nj\u00eb tjet\u00ebr studim, ndikimi neto n\u00eb Europ\u00ebn Veriore do t\u00eb p\u00ebrkthehej n\u00eb periudha t\u00eb ftohti ekstrem, me temperatura q\u00eb n\u00eb Lond\u00ebr mund t\u00eb zbresin deri n\u00eb -19 grad\u00eb, n\u00eb Edinburg deri n\u00eb -30, dhe n\u00eb Oslo deri n\u00eb -48 grad\u00eb. N\u00eb shkurt, akulli detar do t\u00eb shtrihej deri n\u00eb Lincolnshire. Klima jon\u00eb do t\u00eb transformohej n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb drastike, me gjasa p\u00ebr ngjarje ekstreme si stuhi t\u00eb forta dim\u00ebrore.<\/p>\n
Bujq\u00ebsia e mb\u00ebshtetur te reshjet do t\u00eb b\u00ebhej praktikisht e pamundur n\u00eb t\u00eb gjith\u00eb Mbret\u00ebrin\u00eb e Bashkuar. Ky ndryshim, n\u00eb \u00e7do shkall\u00eb kohore realiste p\u00ebr njer\u00ebzimin, do t\u00eb ishte i pakthyesh\u00ebm. Shpejt\u00ebsia e tij mund t\u00eb tejkaloj\u00eb aft\u00ebsin\u00eb ton\u00eb p\u00ebr t\u2019u p\u00ebrshtatur. Ndalimi i AMOC, i shkaktuar nga variabiliteti natyror klimatik, ka ndodhur edhe m\u00eb par\u00eb. Por jo gjat\u00eb nj\u00eb epoke t\u00eb qytet\u00ebrimit njer\u00ebzor n\u00eb shkall\u00eb t\u00eb gjer\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Studimi i par\u00eb q\u00eb propozonte se AMOC mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb gjendje \u201caktive\u201d dhe nj\u00eb gjendje \u201ct\u00eb fikur\u201d u botua n\u00eb vitin 1961. Q\u00eb at\u00ebher\u00eb, shum\u00eb k\u00ebrkime e kan\u00eb konfirmuar k\u00ebt\u00eb zbulim dhe kan\u00eb thelluar analiz\u00ebn mbi faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb mund ta nxisin dhe pasojat e mundshme. Deri jo shum\u00eb koh\u00eb m\u00eb par\u00eb, kolapsi i AMOC i shkaktuar nga aktiviteti njer\u00ebzor konsiderohej nj\u00eb ngjarje \u201cme ndikim t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe probabilitet t\u00eb ul\u00ebt\u201d: shkat\u00ebrruese n\u00ebse ndodhte, por pak e mundshme. K\u00ebrkimet e viteve t\u00eb fundit kan\u00eb sjell\u00eb nj\u00eb rivler\u00ebsim. Ka filluar t\u00eb duket m\u00eb shum\u00eb si nj\u00eb ngjarje \u201cme ndikim t\u00eb lart\u00eb dhe probabilitet t\u00eb lart\u00eb\u201d. Tani, n\u00eb reagim ndaj studimit t\u00eb publikuar m\u00eb 15 prill, profesori gjerman Stefan Rahmstorf, ndoshta autoriteti m\u00eb i madh bot\u00ebror n\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb fush\u00eb, thot\u00eb se probabiliteti i nj\u00eb ndalimi duket t\u00eb jet\u00eb \u201cmbi 50 p\u00ebr qind\u201d. Mund t\u00eb kalojm\u00eb pik\u00ebn kritike, thot\u00eb Rahmstorf, \u201cn\u00eb mesin e k\u00ebtij shekulli\u201d.<\/p>\n
Dhe at\u00ebher\u00eb, pse kjo nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb n\u00eb \u00e7do edicion lajmesh? Pse nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb prioritet i qeverive q\u00eb pretendojn\u00eb se duan t\u00eb na mbrojn\u00eb nga rreziku?<\/p>\n
N\u00eb nj\u00eb mas\u00eb t\u00eb madhe sepse pushteti oligarkik ka mb\u00ebshtetur nj\u00eb model t\u00eb ndikimit klimatik q\u00eb ka shum\u00eb pak lidhje me realitetin, dometh\u00ebn\u00eb, ata kan\u00eb nj\u00eb ide p\u00ebr m\u00ebnyr\u00ebn se si funksionon bota q\u00eb \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb larg zbulimeve shkencore. Ky model dob\u00ebson reagimet zyrtare ndaj kriz\u00ebs klimatike. Gjith\u00e7ka nisi me pun\u00ebn e ekonomistit William Nordhaus, i cili u p\u00ebrpoq t\u00eb vler\u00ebsonte efektet ekonomike t\u00eb ngrohjes globale. Modeli i tij sugjeron se nj\u00eb nivel \u201cshoq\u00ebrisht optimal\u201d i ngrohjes do t\u00eb ishte midis 3.5 dhe 4 grad\u00eb Celsius. Shumica e shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebve t\u00eb klim\u00ebs e konsiderojn\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb till\u00eb temperaturash katastrofike. Edhe nj\u00eb ngrohje prej 6 grad\u00ebsh, sugjeron Nordhaus, do t\u00eb sillte vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb humbje prej 8.5 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb. P\u00ebr shkenc\u00ebn e klim\u00ebs, nj\u00eb skenar i till\u00eb do t\u00eb ishte shum\u00eb m\u00eb tep\u00ebr fundi i qytet\u00ebrimit.<\/p>\n
Si\u00e7 kan\u00eb argumentuar ekonomist\u00ebt Nicholas Stern, Joseph Stiglitz dhe Charlotte Taylor, efektet relativisht t\u00eb lehta q\u00eb parashikon Nordhaus jan\u00eb thjesht produkt i modelit q\u00eb ai p\u00ebrdori. P\u00ebr shembull, modeli i tij supozon se rreziqet katastrofike nuk ekzistojn\u00eb dhe se ndikimi i ndryshimeve klimatike rritet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb lineare me rritjen e temperatur\u00ebs. Por asnj\u00eb model klimatik nuk sugjeron nj\u00eb sjellje t\u00eb till\u00eb.<\/p>\n
Shkenca e klim\u00ebs parashikon dinamika jo-lineare dhe nj\u00eb rrezik q\u00eb b\u00ebhet gjithnj\u00eb e m\u00eb intensiv. Nd\u00ebr pasojat e mundshme t\u00eb niveleve t\u00eb larta t\u00eb ngrohjes jan\u00eb: p\u00ebrmbytja e qyteteve t\u00eb m\u00ebdha, zhdukja e kushteve q\u00eb mb\u00ebshtesin jet\u00ebn njer\u00ebzore, n\u00eb zona t\u00eb gjera t\u00eb planetit, kolapsi i sistemit global ushqimor dhe ndryshime zinxhir n\u00eb ekosisteme, q\u00eb mund t\u00eb \u00e7lirojn\u00eb rezerva natyrore t\u00eb dioksidit t\u00eb karbonit dhe t\u00eb \u00e7ojn\u00eb drejt nj\u00eb \u201cToke-serr\u00eb\u201d, ku shum\u00eb pak do t\u00eb mbijetonin. N\u00eb at\u00eb pik\u00eb, nuk do t\u00eb kishte m\u00eb kuptim t\u00eb flitej p\u00ebr disa pik\u00eb p\u00ebrqindjeje m\u00eb pak t\u00eb PBB-s\u00eb, sepse nuk do t\u00eb kishim m\u00eb as instrumente matjeje, dhe mezi do t\u00eb ekzistonte nj\u00eb ekonomi p\u00ebr t\u2019u matur. Gj\u00ebja m\u00eb e \u00e7uditshme \u00ebsht\u00eb se modeli aplikon edhe \u201czbritje\u201d p\u00ebr popullsit\u00eb e ardhshme: supozon se jet\u00ebt e tyre vlejn\u00eb m\u00eb pak se tonat. Me fjal\u00eb t\u00eb tjera, ai mori nj\u00eb metod\u00eb t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur p\u00ebr t\u00eb llogaritur kthimin e kapitalit dhe e aplikoi mbi qeniet njer\u00ebzore.<\/p>\n
Si\u00e7 v\u00ebrejn\u00eb tre ekonomist\u00ebt, \u201c\u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb e v\u00ebshtir\u00eb t\u00eb gjendet nj\u00eb justifikim p\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb n\u00eb filozofin\u00eb morale\u201d. P\u00ebr m\u00eb tep\u00ebr, kriza klimatike godet n\u00eb m\u00ebnyr\u00eb disproporcionale t\u00eb varfrit, por sipas k\u00ebtyre modeleve, edhe jet\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre u atribuohet m\u00eb pak vler\u00eb. Nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb \u00e7udi q\u00eb modele t\u00eb tilla, v\u00ebrejn\u00eb Stern, Stiglitz dhe Taylor, jan\u00eb p\u00ebrdorur nga industria e karburanteve fosile p\u00ebr t\u00eb justifikuar reagime minimale ndaj kriz\u00ebs klimatike.<\/p>\n
Dhe nuk b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb vet\u00ebm p\u00ebr kompanit\u00eb e naft\u00ebs. Bill Gates, i cili pretendon se d\u00ebshiron t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb planetin, ka dhuruar 3.5 milion\u00eb dollar\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb think tank t\u00eb drejtuar nga Bj\u00f8rn Lomborg, i cili e ka nd\u00ebrtuar karrier\u00ebn e tij duke promovuar modelin e Nordhaus, duke ndihmuar k\u00ebshtu n\u00eb minimizimin e nevoj\u00ebs p\u00ebr veprim klimatik. Nordhaus mori edhe \u00c7mimin Nobel p\u00ebr Ekonomi p\u00ebr k\u00ebto absurditete t\u00eb rrezikshme, t\u00eb cilat jan\u00eb thell\u00ebsisht t\u00eb rr\u00ebnjosura n\u00eb proceset vendimmarr\u00ebse t\u00eb qeverive. Nj\u00eb sekt miliarder\u00ebsh, i p\u00ebrkushtuar ndaj vdekjes, i ka gishtat t\u00eb shtr\u00ebnguar rreth fytit t\u00eb njer\u00ebzimit. Ai e shkakton dhe nj\u00ebkoh\u00ebsisht e minimizon kriz\u00ebn ton\u00eb ekzistenciale. Oligark\u00ebt nuk jan\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb armik i klas\u00ebs, por si\u00e7 kan\u00eb qen\u00eb gjithmon\u00eb, nj\u00eb armik i shoq\u00ebris\u00eb.
\nPak mij\u00ebra njer\u00ebz jan\u00eb n\u00eb gjendje t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrrojn\u00eb qytet\u00ebrime t\u00eb t\u00ebra. Miliarda njer\u00ebz kund\u00ebr miliarder\u00ebve. Dhe v\u00ebshtir\u00eb se mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb nj\u00eb bast m\u00eb t\u00eb madh se ky.<\/p>\n
\/koha.mk<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Njer\u00ebzit e varf\u00ebr dhe shtresa e mesme paguajn\u00eb taksa, t\u00eb pasurit paguajn\u00eb kontabilist\u00ebt, shum\u00eb t\u00eb<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":127652,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-130373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130373","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=130373"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/130373\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/127652"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=130373"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=130373"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kercova.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=130373"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}